brown louis vuitton bag: 十一月 2013

2013年11月21日星期四

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As Karen just noted, in an interview with Katie Couric that aired just before the Superbowl, President Obama called for another bipartisan meeting on health care.louis vuitton replica After being pummeled by accusations of back-room deals and sharp partisanship, Obama said he would convene a half-day meeting where Republicans and Democrats would be able to discuss their ideas for reform and defend their positions. Obama promised keep the meeting open to television cameras, including presumably those from C-SPAN. Obama is no doubt hoping for a sequel to the policy debate victory he notched recently during a televised meeting with the House GOP caucus. But let’s not kid ourselves.louis vuitton speedy While the public may easily ?? and understandably ?? get lost in the minutiae of health care policy, Obama is well aware of Republican ideas about how to change the health care system and he has rejected many of them already. Republicans know this and they have no plans to try to influence the existing legislation. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell responded to Obama??s overture by calling for the current health reform legislation to be ??put on the shelf,?? aka, scrapped altogether. This is not going to happen.louis vuitton replica So what we??re left with is some potentially interesting political theater. Obama is betting that he will be able to persuasively debunk Republican ideas for health care reform. He??s also betting that if the American people understand what??s in Democratic proposals, many of those who oppose the legislation will decide to support it. This may seem risky and probably is ?? after all, it??s not as though Democrats haven??t already tried (and failed) to explain the dysfunctions in the U.chanel handbags for saleS. health care system. But then again, Obama is right about the fact that there is wide misunderstanding about what??s in the House and Senate reform bills. The latest tracking poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation, for instance, showed that 60% believe Democratic health reform would increase the deficit in the next 10 years.replica chanel shoes The Congressional Budget Office says this is not true. The Kaiser poll also showed that 30% think those with employer based health insurance would have to change to different coverage. As I??ve pointed out, the Democratic legislation painstakingly preserves the employer-based health insurance system. We are observing, it seems, Obama??s final health care push.louis vuitton replica This push is proof that the President doesn’t view Scott Brown’s victory as an insurmountable obstacle to Democratic reforms. The reality, though, remains to be seen and probably has a lot more to do with polls and whip counts than it does with policy arguments and television cameras.
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Napa, California Traveling Companions: none Event: the lack of events An astute commenter noted that I passed through Nevada without a word about the Harry Reid-Sharron Angle Senate Race.gucci outlet online There is a reason for that. This trip is about things I can actually see with my own eyes. For all intents and purposes, Sharron Angle is invisible–and Harry Reid was out of state for the days I was there. Angle is part of a growing legion of (mostly Republican) ghost politicians.fake gucci shoes It’s a trend that has been building for years: why risk actually meeting with the public, or dealing with the media, if there’s a chance you might say something makaka. If you’re an inexperienced extremist like Angle, Rand Paul or Christine O’Donnell, there’s a very good chance you’re going to screw up. If you ran a primary race as a right-wing scorcher, like Ken Buck in Colorado, there’s always a chance you’re going to get caught modifying a position. (I’m therefore grateful to Buck for the courage he showed in meeting a politically unreliable columnist like me–really!) In fact, I went to a Buck event for veterans in Denver that consisted of the following: Candidate walks in, shakes every hand.ugg boots outlet Candidate announces that he’s not going to say anything of substance because of the presence of a Democratic Party tracker (with videocam). Candidate leaves. Now I’m in California, which led the way on the evaporation of political events. The state’s so big that the only way to communicate is via TV ads, plus the occasional debate.chanel outlet Campaign stops are photo ops. There will be a gubernatorial debate here Tuesday. But I’ll spend most of my time meeting with the friends and respected members of the community whom you, dear readers, recommended. This post is part of my Election Road Trip 2010 project.cheap gucci belts To track my location across the country, and read all my road trip posts, click here.
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2013年11月19日星期二

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The economy added 227,000 jobs in February as the unemployment rate remained unchanged despite a swelling labor force, and January and December numbers were revised up, good signs all.loui vuitton How Santorum would fare with Gingrich out of the picture. Romney’s keeping pace with McCain in share of delegates, states won and vote share. But extrapolating out, he could still be denied a majority by June. The anti-incumbency PAC that’s already claiming scalps.loui vuitton The White House plots a renewed health reform sales pitch around the legal case. Political scientists conclude it cost Democrats the House. Cheaper genome sequencing would have made some sort of mandate necessary eventually. And Davis Guggenhiem really embraces his role as propagandist.louis vuitton outlet online
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There are two realities on the campaign trail: the one visible to dispassionate observers, and the reality the candidate inhabits.chanel handbags for sale In Newt Gingrich’s bubble, Super Tuesday was a triumph: the benchmark he set was to win his home state, and he coasted to victory. Remove the rose-colored glasses and the landscape looks uglier. Gingrich won just one in 10 states, and finished dead last in half. Overall, Gingrich has won just 2 of 22 contests thus far, lags a distant third in the unofficial delegate counts, and would need to capture some 70% of the remaining delegates to eclipse Mitt Romney’s edge.replica chanel shoes It would take an “act of God,” one of Romney’s advisers said, for Gingrich or Rick Santorum to prevent Romney’s coronation. The math suggests they can only postpone it. Of course, each rival’s chances increase with the exit of the other, which is why Santorum’s camp is trying to push Gingrich out of the race before the uphill climb to oust Romney gets any steeper. Over the past 48 hours, a chorus of Santorum supporters has called on Gingrich to step aside.cheap gucci belts ??Based on his electoral performance last night and his out-of-step record, it is time for Newt Gingrich to exit the Republican nominating process,?? wrote Stuart Roy, an adviser to the pro-Santorum Red, White and Blue PAC. ??His campaign is an obvious non-starter.?? A cadre of veteran social conservatives backing Santorum — including Gary Bauer, Richard Viguerie and Tony Perkins — have all urged Gingrich to step aside to give movement conservatives a chance to deny Romney the nomination. In an appeal to Gingrich’s vaunted vanity, Perkins suggested the former House Speaker “has never been in a more influential position in deciding the outcome of the nomination; he could be a kingmaker if he stepped out of the race.fake ugg boots” But Gingrich’s political obituary has been written before, and he’s not ready to bury his campaign yet. “Despite the many requests by the Washington establishment, I am staying in this race,” he said Wednesday. Again, his campaign has set itself benchmarks to continue: victories next Tuesday in Alabama and Mississippi, Deep South states where Gingrich — who has only won in the South — believes his firebrand style has the greatest resonance. Gingrich canceled a planned trip to Kansas in advance of the state’s caucuses on Saturday to shore up his Southern base.handbags louis vuitton Gingrich has been open about a path to the nomination that begins and ends in the South. R.C. Hammond, Gingrich’s spokesman, said this week that the candidate needed to win “everything from Spartanburg [South Carolina] all the way to Texas,” but insisted the race would continue for “months.ugg boots outlet” There are obvious problems with this strategy. First, localizing a campaign in a single region — the?heartland of the Republican Party — undercuts Gingrich’s assertion that he is the only candidate capable of taking to the fight to Barack Obama, whom the GOP nominee will need to beat in swing states (and red states that Obama turned blue in 2008). Alabama and Mississippi also allocate delegates proportionally, so it will be difficult for Gingrich to make up much ground even if he revives his campaign there. And that’s hardly a guarantee.cheap gucci belts Despite the import he’s accorded the Alabama primary, Gingrich came in third in the first two polls out of the state; an Alabama State survey released Wednesday (which curiously omitted Ron Paul) showed Gingrich nine points behind Santorum, and a poll released Thursday by the Alabama Education Association showed him 10 points behind Romney. Santorum’s super PAC has purchased TV time in both states in an attempt to finish Newt off. “Newt has become a hindrance to a conservative alternative,” Roy of the Red, White and Blue PAC said. It may make little sense for Gingrich to get out now, however.fake louis vuitton shoes With Sheldon Adelson footing his TV budget, Newt needs only to maintain enough cash to ferry him around the country, where his message can speak for itself. There is little incentive to bow out when he can keep collecting delegates on the cheap, thereby increasing his leverage when it comes time to barter down the line. Even if he were to exit, Gingrich’s supporters wouldn’t necessarily file into Santorum’s column. Crunching the numbers from polls that asked about voters’ runner-up preferences, Nate Silver estimates that 57% of Gingrich fans would migrate to Santorum, with 27% lining up behind Romney and 16% picking Paul.fake chanel shoes (As Silver notes, the model ignores that some likely wouldn’t vote at all.) That would be a significant boost to Santorum. But at this point, having confined his campaign to states where he has a viable chance of winning, Gingrich’s share of the vote in many others is essentially negligible; according to Silver’s model, his absence wouldn’t, for example, have changed the outcome in Michigan, where Romney won an uncomfortably close three-point victory. Whether or not he can notch the necessary victories next week, Gingrich will soon be forced to consider how the terms on which he exits the race will affect the goals with which he entered it.chanel handbags for sale Gingrich had been out of government almost 15 years when he entered the fray, long enough that a chunk of the new party establishment — and much of the national press corps — never witnessed him at the height of his powers. For a long time, his bid was maligned by the press as a glorified book tour, a way to soak up the national spotlight and convert the exposure into cash. But in many ways, Gingrich has burnished his standing in the party, with a knack for rhetorical flourishes and forceful rhetoric that none of his rivals can match. “He’s the only guy left who’s a real performer, who’s got the ability to whip up a crowd,” says a senior adviser to a rival campaign.gucci outlet online Gingrich knows he possesses this gift, and as long as he has it, he will go on trying to convince the party to buy into reality as he sees it.
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In April of last year, Michael Grunwald wrote a sharp piece clarifying Barack Obama’s central re-election challenge: The hallmark achievements of his first term have been prophylactic.fake louis vuitton shoes While stopping a recession from becoming a depression, reinforcing a health care infrastructure already groaning under the burden and cost of America’s sick, or thwarting domestic terror plots might sound good, they don’t lend themselves easily to a re-election message. “He is the counterfactual President,” Grunwald wrote. “And as his aides often complain, ‘I prevented a disaster’ is a lousy political slogan. Or as Democratic Congressman Barney Frank of Massachusetts has put it, ‘It would have been even worse without me’ ain’t much of a bumper sticker.replica gucci shoes” Obama’s chances have always been tethered to the tremulous economy, and it was on that issue that the President had the most difficult case to make. Three and a half years after the financial crisis, unemployment is still? high. Americans never thought much of the $700 billion stimulus program Obama championed. And no matter how eloquent the President might have been? in describing the dire state of things when he took charge or the seeds of disaster he says Republicans sowed in their prior eight years of rule, Obama’s argument could be neutered with four simple words uttered by his opponents to the voting public in 2012: Are you better off? But for the first time in his presidency, there’s a glimmer of a chance that Obama won’t have to rely on this tortured counterfactual.replica louis vuitton February unemployment numbers released Friday showed robust job growth and upward revisions from December and January as well. Payrolls swelled by an average of 245,000 per month over that period. The public sector losses that have put a major drag on employment are tapering off–just 7,000 government jobs were lost in the first two months of the year. A real recovery, in line with historical rates of economic rehabilitation, has finally arrived.louis vuitton shoes replica If it continues, it could shift the burden of the counterfactual to Republicans, completely rebalancing the 2012 presidential race. Mitt Romney (most likely) would have to make the case that things would be much better now if Obama had not hampered the economy with onerous regulation. Rather than asking Americans if they’re better off, he’ll have to dive into the weeds of Big Government gone bad and persuade voters that Obama is not realizing America’s full potential. Romney and his advisers, wary of this eventuality from the outset, are beginning to adjust.louis vuitton handbags for sale Where he once described Obama as a nice guy out of his depth, Romney is now preparing a “prosecution” of the President’s economic record and how it has “hurt the middle class, given more and more people concerns about their jobs and prices, and put downward pressure on households.” Persuading Americans that they’re not OK has become part of his task. “Incomes have not risen. Gasoline prices are high,” he recently told CNBC.fake louis vuitton shoes “The idea that everything’s fine out there in America comes from people who are detached from America.” It is not a given that the economy has reached escape velocity from the misery of the Great Recession. Normal employment is a long way off. The Fed continues to expect “modest” economic growth throughout 2012, especially in the summer months.gucci handbag for sale A surge in jobless Americans who had previously given up hope could return to the labor force, driving up the unemployment rate. There are enough financial explosives packed into the banks and treasuries of Europe to level the global economy if that continent’s leader are unable to defuse their crisis. Oil prices are high. And there is not sufficient polling data to tell us that the voting public is feeling hale.fake louis vuitton But the last three months have been good. And Obama may finally be able to argue that the last three years were too.
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2013年11月16日星期六

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Barack Obama is a man of big speeches, the sort that get named after cities: Boston in 2004, Berlin and Denver in 2008, Cairo and Prague in 2009.fake ugg boots In Strasbourg, France, he addressed all of Europe, in Moscow the Russian elite, in Shanghai the youth of China. His Inaugural Address drew about 1.8 million people to the frozen National Mall, and his prime-time rhetorical interruptions since then have marked his presidency like a grandfather-clock chime: the joint sessions of Congress, the State of the Unions, the East Room announcements of the killing of Osama bin Laden and the debt-ceiling deadlock. Bill Clinton was known for winning small rooms and street corners.louis vuitton replica George W. Bush had a knack for nicknames that made everyone feel like they were part of the gang. Obama tends to soar above, the prof who can also preach, drawing both from the rhetorical traditions of the civil rights movement and law-school lecture halls. As he famously (and immodestly) told Senate majority leader Harry Reid after one barn burner, ??Harry, I have a gift.louis vuitton handbags for sale?? (MORE:?Bill Clinton Makes His Case for Obama) On Thursday, the President will count on that gift to give again. His speech in Charlotte, N.C., after 10 p.gucci handbag for salem. E.T., will probably be his last opportunity to lay out his plans for a second term in the format he most favors.louis vuitton handbags for sale With the polls showing him teetering on the knife edge of victory or defeat, the stakes are, as always, far too high. White House advisers say they don??t expect a big bump in the polls after the convention; the electorate is still too static. But they are counting on Obama to clear another campaign hurdle by clearly explaining to the American people why the next four years of his presidency will be better than the last. It??s a vision he has yet to present in full.louis vuitton speedy
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